I feel simply saying that the numbers are heavily influenced by gold games making them less representative of the impact on your diamond games isn't at all elitist, it's just factual. The elitism comes when people start saying garbage gold players game experiences don't matter and shouldn't be considered when making buffs or nerfs is what defines the elitist attitude imo.
Really love these, the quick notes about the best build/role are always helpful and it's interesting to hear how they changed or didn't. Besides it's always fun to listen when someone really knows what they are talking about, especially with stats to back it up.
If you are going to analyze liandry's vs luden's, maybe a breakdown of enemy champ base HP or scaling HP would be helpful. Luden's vs tanks is probably worse, so its not fair to compare them for the whole data set. are there tools to do that sort of data analysis? i'm a data scientist, so i'd love to know what is publicly available, and what tools you use to look at it
I really think champions like soraka are higher winrate In higher elo because squishy caster supports are just so easy to int on in gold / plat / diamond if shes 54.5% overall she has to be turbo broken in masters +
I think talyiah jungle is a champion where you need to have a skill floor to even play properly probably around plat 2 AND you need atleast 30-100 games to really understand what you are doing fully.
Hey phreak just wanted to throw some appreciation your way, been watching your videos fairly consistently since "Dnd is my favorite hobby" video (and I totally have tried it since I watched it and it's become one of my favorite games).
But that's side tracking – thanks for breaking down how you interpret the patch. I would be interested in more videos kind of explaining how the data collection process works – I know you've done a couple videos sort of like that, but maybe like how to navigate google sheets or excel, so we can do our own research!
Looking at soraka winrates in mid/top there is a huge gap between silver/plat+ does that mean she should be seen in worlds at the mid/top roles? Even if they tap her with a nerf I think mid/top soraka is going to still be strong at higher levels of play. For support her winrate gap between silver/diamond is like 1%, but its a huge 7-8% for mid/top roles with a winrate of 56% in toplane. Now with games played the confidence interval means there can be a few percentage points swing but there seems to be a strong correlation to her being viable in the top/mid roles from gold+.
I think for Jayce, even with only a small amount of distance traveled lost, it can still make a big difference when the opponent is playing around a very specific midrange gap closer (his hammer jump). For the same reason that Darius will often rush hearthbound axe because it helps him to catch out people with a relatively small boost of MS so he can land his E. If Jayce's jump range were lowered by the same amount as his movespeed was reduced, I reckon the shift in winrate would be similar.
Analysis of the item win rates between liandrys and ludens is pretty misleading. You can't draw any conclusion about the situational efficacy of the items from those aggregate stats. Say if people build liandry's disproportionately more often against tankier comps compared to Ludens, Kog still may be less effective overall against tankier comps but doesn't make the liandrys the wrong choice if your against one.
It's the same logic that would lead you to think buying first item Mejai's Soulstealer is optimal because it has on aggregate the highest winrate.
You would need to adjust the data to deskew for these situational factors. All that said Ludens -> Liandrys is not a bad rule of thumb in general but it's a slippery slope to ignore the issues with the original claim.
You’re buffs for renekton are pathetic and don’t address the problems he has at all. Yes his base stats are relatively low for a bruiser. But it does not change the fact that nearly none of his ability reduce in cd as you level them and so much more.
Confidence interval fix is great! First time around in 11.15 me and a few others noticed and commented on it and we're glad it's being changed to give people the most accurate information 🙂
goddam man i have 55% wr low plat high gold jayce and i didn't realize this champ was getting so neutered. Perhaps he needs a light rework to move power from cannon to hammer? idk.
For gangplank – but.. Phreak.. I'm hardstuck season 6/7 and crit gangplank is the only fun build. Give crit back to trinity and I might actually buy it. Until then, I'll keep buying ER and complaining that my winrate is sub-par 🙂
Always gotta love it, when I argue with someone and use stats from lolalytics and people immediately say "why use that shit site, it has win rate inflation, better use website X instead" then I quickly investigate that website, and it's either like 10% of the sample size, restricted to only count games played in KR or has about 3 filtering options when it comes to stuff like items or masteries.
I wish I could understand these people. Like for real, it's not that hard to look at the top of the page where they state "hey our sample size has an average win rate of 50.8, please keep that in mind". It's like almost objectively the best website to look at, even if it says that you're wrong about the items you're building on your main you've mained for 5 years. Get over it.
Anyways, good video, as usual! I was ready for the Fizz changes to be a slight nerf, but I didn't expect as much. Anyways, that champ's annoying, so I'm not going to complain.
When will riot lower taliyah's w and e mana costs? What is the reasoning behind making the champ have 2 spells that cost over 100 mana at max rank when her ult costs 100? It's really gross the champ is disgustingly mana hungry, definitely makes it more difficult to pilot for newer taliyah players
Hate to correct Phreak, since I almost always agree with him, but ban rate definitely IS power with Morgana and Zed. First, as he points out, they're VERY popular, which will always makes bans powerful in and of itself because you're MUCH more likely to screw over someone on the enemy team, and that is a delicious motivation. Secondly, you have to look at their generally weak counterpicks in comparison to their general strength AS counterpicks which means Morgana and Zed both do well against all enemy comps (as opposed to Taliyah who has many strong counterpicks from every enemy role in relation to generally being a weaker counter); even in highly specific situations you're bound to have Morg and Zed often be good defensive bans by experienced players who don't want their uncommon pick countered by a highly common champ and that is raw power whenever it validly happens. And, lastly, going back to their popularity, Phreak mentions how their plays can be annoying to play against and it can be very powerful to ban repetitive annoyances just for your own mental energy and positivity, which does probably win games.
This is not to say there aren't "better" or "more correct" bans, as Phreak would probably say, but most people don't have the time to figure that out in a couple seconds at the start of their ranked games. Was Kassadin's win rate lowered by how he was permabanned back in the day or would he have performed at the same rate had nobody banned him at all? Generally, I always assume bans wield SOME unknown degree of power over win rates for the champ in question, even in the stupidest instances, since bans are both very straightforward and usually chosen for at least SOME reason.
Be the change you wish to see in the world
first time watching one of these and i like the analysis but just curious does he always start with "what's up fellow gamers" and if so. why
I feel simply saying that the numbers are heavily influenced by gold games making them less representative of the impact on your diamond games isn't at all elitist, it's just factual. The elitism comes when people start saying garbage gold players game experiences don't matter and shouldn't be considered when making buffs or nerfs is what defines the elitist attitude imo.
Really love these, the quick notes about the best build/role are always helpful and it's interesting to hear how they changed or didn't. Besides it's always fun to listen when someone really knows what they are talking about, especially with stats to back it up.
If you are going to analyze liandry's vs luden's, maybe a breakdown of enemy champ base HP or scaling HP would be helpful. Luden's vs tanks is probably worse, so its not fair to compare them for the whole data set. are there tools to do that sort of data analysis? i'm a data scientist, so i'd love to know what is publicly available, and what tools you use to look at it
44:07 casual flex
a 54 percent win rate is only a +4 over 100 games not the other numbers you were making up
I really think champions like soraka are higher winrate In higher elo because squishy caster supports are just so easy to int on in gold / plat / diamond if shes 54.5% overall she has to be turbo broken in masters +
I think talyiah jungle is a champion where you need to have a skill floor to even play properly probably around plat 2 AND you need atleast 30-100 games to really understand what you are doing fully.
I have a theory that winrate change – the size of a buff or nerf is how impactful the role is in solo queue
Hey phreak just wanted to throw some appreciation your way, been watching your videos fairly consistently since "Dnd is my favorite hobby" video (and I totally have tried it since I watched it and it's become one of my favorite games).
But that's side tracking – thanks for breaking down how you interpret the patch. I would be interested in more videos kind of explaining how the data collection process works – I know you've done a couple videos sort of like that, but maybe like how to navigate google sheets or excel, so we can do our own research!
Anyways great content as always!
Looking at soraka winrates in mid/top there is a huge gap between silver/plat+ does that mean she should be seen in worlds at the mid/top roles? Even if they tap her with a nerf I think mid/top soraka is going to still be strong at higher levels of play. For support her winrate gap between silver/diamond is like 1%, but its a huge 7-8% for mid/top roles with a winrate of 56% in toplane. Now with games played the confidence interval means there can be a few percentage points swing but there seems to be a strong correlation to her being viable in the top/mid roles from gold+.
Phreak shirt watch continues.
I think Jace couldn't escape a gank or skillshot in 1 out 100 games that he would dodged. As a champion deaths are painful to him
I think for Jayce, even with only a small amount of distance traveled lost, it can still make a big difference when the opponent is playing around a very specific midrange gap closer (his hammer jump). For the same reason that Darius will often rush hearthbound axe because it helps him to catch out people with a relatively small boost of MS so he can land his E. If Jayce's jump range were lowered by the same amount as his movespeed was reduced, I reckon the shift in winrate would be similar.
Phreak: Don't play Jayce in solo queue at least in Gold.
Me With 300 games top lane jayce and with 55%: yeah right 😀
But is funny seeing a game developer saying to not play a champ. This clearly shows how unbalanced they know their game is.
Analysis of the item win rates between liandrys and ludens is pretty misleading. You can't draw any conclusion about the situational efficacy of the items from those aggregate stats. Say if people build liandry's disproportionately more often against tankier comps compared to Ludens, Kog still may be less effective overall against tankier comps but doesn't make the liandrys the wrong choice if your against one.
It's the same logic that would lead you to think buying first item Mejai's Soulstealer is optimal because it has on aggregate the highest winrate.
You would need to adjust the data to deskew for these situational factors. All that said Ludens -> Liandrys is not a bad rule of thumb in general but it's a slippery slope to ignore the issues with the original claim.
honestly really enjoy this series, it's kind of fun to see the impact of buffs / nerfs, like jayce and zed were very amusing lol
You’re buffs for renekton are pathetic and don’t address the problems he has at all. Yes his base stats are relatively low for a bruiser. But it does not change the fact that nearly none of his ability reduce in cd as you level them and so much more.
Damn, I'm sad they are renerfing fizz's w buff as someone that wanted to play some good ol' on hit fizz
what rank bracket is this information from?
No mana
Confidence interval fix is great! First time around in 11.15 me and a few others noticed and commented on it and we're glad it's being changed to give people the most accurate information 🙂
goddam man i have 55% wr low plat high gold jayce and i didn't realize this champ was getting so neutered. Perhaps he needs a light rework to move power from cannon to hammer? idk.
I'm surprised .5 seconds off a stun is a 3% winrate nerf.
Woohoo! Can't wait for the stats!
For gangplank – but.. Phreak.. I'm hardstuck season 6/7 and crit gangplank is the only fun build. Give crit back to trinity and I might actually buy it. Until then, I'll keep buying ER and complaining that my winrate is sub-par 🙂
Why not go from gold 3 and upwards? That would take out the gold 4 hardstick players, without removing a large amount games from the pool
Always gotta love it, when I argue with someone and use stats from lolalytics and people immediately say "why use that shit site, it has win rate inflation, better use website X instead" then I quickly investigate that website, and it's either like 10% of the sample size, restricted to only count games played in KR or has about 3 filtering options when it comes to stuff like items or masteries.
I wish I could understand these people. Like for real, it's not that hard to look at the top of the page where they state "hey our sample size has an average win rate of 50.8, please keep that in mind". It's like almost objectively the best website to look at, even if it says that you're wrong about the items you're building on your main you've mained for 5 years. Get over it.
Anyways, good video, as usual! I was ready for the Fizz changes to be a slight nerf, but I didn't expect as much. Anyways, that champ's annoying, so I'm not going to complain.
Well I started playing taliyah mid again, not that I'm a bad taliyah I just realized how bad of a midlaner I've became.
Ive never seen any one ever use a drink cozy before, crazy!
Great vid Phreak, thanks for your time on this. Really love hearing how you think these changes might effect pro play
Kalista nerf ? Really
When will riot lower taliyah's w and e mana costs? What is the reasoning behind making the champ have 2 spells that cost over 100 mana at max rank when her ult costs 100? It's really gross the champ is disgustingly mana hungry, definitely makes it more difficult to pilot for newer taliyah players
Mundo jg is better because of the buff to q
Hate to correct Phreak, since I almost always agree with him, but ban rate definitely IS power with Morgana and Zed. First, as he points out, they're VERY popular, which will always makes bans powerful in and of itself because you're MUCH more likely to screw over someone on the enemy team, and that is a delicious motivation. Secondly, you have to look at their generally weak counterpicks in comparison to their general strength AS counterpicks which means Morgana and Zed both do well against all enemy comps (as opposed to Taliyah who has many strong counterpicks from every enemy role in relation to generally being a weaker counter); even in highly specific situations you're bound to have Morg and Zed often be good defensive bans by experienced players who don't want their uncommon pick countered by a highly common champ and that is raw power whenever it validly happens. And, lastly, going back to their popularity, Phreak mentions how their plays can be annoying to play against and it can be very powerful to ban repetitive annoyances just for your own mental energy and positivity, which does probably win games.
This is not to say there aren't "better" or "more correct" bans, as Phreak would probably say, but most people don't have the time to figure that out in a couple seconds at the start of their ranked games. Was Kassadin's win rate lowered by how he was permabanned back in the day or would he have performed at the same rate had nobody banned him at all? Generally, I always assume bans wield SOME unknown degree of power over win rates for the champ in question, even in the stupidest instances, since bans are both very straightforward and usually chosen for at least SOME reason.